Map and Territory
What is a belief, and what makes some beliefs work better than others? These four sequences explain the Bayesian notions of rationality, belief, and evidence. A running theme: the things we call “explanations” or “theories” may not always function like maps for navigating the world. As a result, we risk mixing up our mental maps with the other objects in our toolbox.
- What Do I Mean By “Rationality”?
- Feeling Rational
- Why Truth? And...
- ... What’s a Bias, Again?
- Burdensome Details
- Planning Fallacy
- Illusion of Transparency: Why No One Understands You
- Expecting Short Inferential Distances
- The Lens That Sees Its Own Flaws
- Making Beliefs Pay Rent (in Anticipated Experiences)
- A Fable of Science and Politics
- Belief in Belief
- Bayesian Judo
- Pretending to be Wise
- Religion’s Claim to be Non-Disprovable
- Professing and Cheering
- Belief as Attire
- Applause Lights
- Focus Your Uncertainty
- What Is Evidence?
- Scientific Evidence, Legal Evidence, Rational Evidence
- How Much Evidence Does It Take?
- Einstein’s Arrogance
- Occam’s Razor
- Your Strength as a Rationalist
- Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence
- Conservation of Expected Evidence
- Hindsight Devalues Science
- Fake Explanations
- Guessing the Teacher’s Password
- Science as Attire
- Fake Causality
- Semantic Stopsigns
- Mysterious Answers to Mysterious Questions
- The Futility of Emergence
- Say Not “Complexity”
- Positive Bias: Look into the Dark
- Lawful Uncertainty
- My Wild and Reckless Youth
- Failing to Learn from History
- Making History Available
- “Science” as Curiosity-Stopper
- Truly Part of You