C
Noticing Confusion


An account of irrationality would also be incomplete if it provided no theory about how rationality works—or if its “theory” only consisted of vague truisms, with no precise explanatory mechanism. The “Noticing Confusion” sequence asks why it’s useful to base one’s behavior on “rational” expectations, and what it feels like to do so.


  1. Focus Your Uncertainty
  2. What Is Evidence?
  3. Scientific Evidence, Legal Evidence, Rational Evidence
  4. How Much Evidence Does It Take?
  5. Einstein’s Arrogance
  6. Occam’s Razor
  7. Your Strength as a Rationalist
  8. Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence
  9. Conservation of Expected Evidence
  10. Hindsight Devalues Science