A
Predictably Wrong


… [this book] begins with a sequence on cognitive bias: “Predictably Wrong.” The rest of the book won’t stick to just this topic; bad habits and bad ideas matter, even when they arise from our minds’ contents as opposed to our minds’ structure.


  1. What Do I Mean By “Rationality”?
  2. Feeling Rational
  3. Why Truth? And…
  4. … What’s a Bias, Again?
  5. Availability
  6. Burdensome Details
  7. Planning Fallacy
  8. Illusion of Transparency: Why No One Understands You
  9. Expecting Short Inferential Distances
  10. The Lens That Sees Its Own Flaws