• Biases-An-Introduction

  1. What-Do-I-Mean-By-Rationality
  2. Feeling-Rational
  3. Why-Truth-And
  4. Whats-A-Bias-Again
  5. Availability
  6. Burdensome-Details
  7. Planning-Fallacy
  8. Illusion-Of-Transparency-Why-No-One-Understands-You
  9. Expecting-Short-Inferential-Distances
  10. The-Lens-That-Sees-Its-Own-Flaws
  11. Making-Beliefs-Pay-Rent-In-Anticipated-Experiences
  12. A-Fable-Of-Science-And-Politics
  13. Belief-In-Belief
  14. Bayesian-Judo
  15. Pretending-To-Be-Wise
  16. Religions-Claim-To-Be-Non-Disprovable
  17. Professing-And-Cheering
  18. Belief-As-Attire
  19. Applause-Lights
  20. Focus-Your-Uncertainty
  21. What-Is-Evidence
  22. Scientific-Evidence-Legal-Evidence-Rational-Evidence
  23. How-Much-Evidence-Does-It-Take
  24. Einsteins-Arrogance
  25. Occams-Razor
  26. Your-Strength-As-A-Rationalist
  27. Absence-Of-Evidence-Is-Evidence-Of-Absence
  28. Conservation-Of-Expected-Evidence
  29. Hindsight-Devalues-Science
  30. Fake-Explanations
  31. Guessing-The-Teachers-Password
  32. Science-As-Attire
  33. Fake-Causality
  34. Semantic-Stopsigns
  35. Mysterious-Answers-To-Mysterious-Questions
  36. The-Futility-Of-Emergence
  37. Say-Not-Complexity
  38. Positive-Bias-Look-Into-The-Dark
  39. Lawful-Uncertainty
  40. My-Wild-And-Reckless-Youth
  41. Failing-To-Learn-From-History
  42. Making-History-Available
  43. Explain-Worship-Ignore
  44. Science-As-Curiosity-Stopper
  45. Truly-Part-Of-You

  • The-Simple-Truth
  • Rationality-An-Introduction
    1. The-Proper-Use-Of-Humility
    2. The-Third-Alternative
    3. Lotteries-A-Waste-Of-Hope
    4. New-Improved-Lottery
    5. But-Theres-Still-A-Chance-Right
    6. The-Fallacy-Of-Gray
    7. Absolute-Authority
    8. How-To-Convince-Me-That-Two-Plus-Two-Equals-Three
    9. Infinite-Certainty
    10. Zero-And-One-Are-Not-Probabilities
    11. Your-Rationality-Is-My-Business
    12. Politics-Is-The-Mind-Killer
    13. Policy-Debates-Should-Not-Appear-One-Sided
    14. The-Scales-Of-Justice-The-Notebook-Of-Rationality
    15. Correspondence-Bias
    16. Are-Your-Enemies-Innately-Evil
    17. Reversed-Stupidity-Is-Not-Intelligence
    18. Argument-Screens-Off-Authority
    19. Hug-The-Query
    20. Rationality-And-The-English-Language
    21. Human-Evil-And-Muddled-Thinking
    22. Knowing-About-Biases-Can-Hurt-People
    23. Update-Yourself-Incrementally
    24. One-Argument-Against-An-Army
    25. The-Bottom-Line
    26. What-Evidence-Filtered-Evidence
    27. Rationalization
    28. A-Rational-Argument
    29. Avoiding-Your-Beliefs-Real-Weak-Points
    30. Motivated-Stopping-And-Motivated-Continuation
    31. Fake-Justification
    32. Is-That-Your-True-Rejection
    33. Entangled-Truths-Contagious-Lies
    34. Of-Lies-And-Black-Swan-Blowups
    35. Dark-Side-Epistemology
    36. Singlethink
    37. Doublethink-Choosing-To-Be-Biased
    38. No-Really-Ive-Deceived-Myself
    39. Belief-In-Self-Deception
    40. Moores-Paradox
    41. Dont-Believe-Youll-Self-Deceive
    42. Anchoring-And-Adjustment
    43. Priming-And-Contamination
    44. Do-We-Believe-Everything-Were-Told
    45. Cached-Thoughts
    46. The-Outside-The-Box-Box
    47. Original-Seeing
    48. Stranger-Than-History
    49. The-Logical-Fallacy-Of-Generalization-From-Fictional-Evidence
    50. The-Virtue-Of-Narrowness
    51. How-To-Seem-And-Be-Deep
    52. We-Change-Our-Minds-Less-Often-Than-We-Think
    53. Hold-Off-On-Proposing-Solutions
    54. The-Genetic-Fallacy
    55. The-Affect-Heuristic
    56. Evaluability-And-Cheap-Holiday-Shopping
    57. Unbounded-Scales-Huge-Jury-Awards-And-Futurism
    58. The-Halo-Effect
    59. Superhero-Bias
    60. Mere-Messiahs
    61. Affective-Death-Spirals
    62. Resist-The-Happy-Death-Spiral
    63. Uncritical-Supercriticality
    64. Evaporative-Cooling-Of-Group-Beliefs
    65. When-None-Dare-Urge-Restraint
    66. The-Robbers-Cave-Experiment
    67. Every-Cause-Wants-To-Be-A-Cult
    68. Guardians-Of-The-Truth
    69. Guardians-Of-The-Gene-Pool
    70. Guardians-Of-Ayn-Rand
    71. Two-Cult-Koans
    72. Aschs-Conformity-Experiment
    73. On-Expressing-Your-Concerns
    74. Lonely-Dissent
    75. Cultish-Countercultishness
    76. The-Importance-Of-Saying-Oops
    77. The-Crackpot-Offer
    78. Just-Lose-Hope-Already
    79. The-Proper-Use-Of-Doubt
    80. You-Can-Face-Reality
    81. The-Meditation-On-Curiosity
    82. No-One-Can-Exempt-You-From-Rationalitys-Laws
    83. Leave-A-Line-Of-Retreat
    84. Crisis-Of-Faith
    85. The-Ritual
  • Minds-An-Introduction
  • The-Power-Of-Intelligence
    1. An-Alien-God
    2. The-Wonder-Of-Evolution
    3. Evolutions-Are-Stupid-But-Work-Anyway
    4. No-Evolutions-For-Corporations-Or-Nanodevices
    5. Evolving-To-Extinction
    6. The-Tragedy-Of-Group-Selectionism
    7. Fake-Optimization-Criteria
    8. Adaptation-Executers-Not-Fitness-Maximizers
    9. Evolutionary-Psychology
    10. An-Especially-Elegant-Evolutionary-Psychology-Experiment
    11. Superstimuli-And-The-Collapse-Of-Western-Civilization
    12. Thou-Art-Godshatter
    13. Belief-In-Intelligence
    14. Humans-In-Funny-Suits
    15. Optimization-And-The-Intelligence-Explosion
    16. Ghosts-In-The-Machine
    17. Artificial-Addition
    18. Terminal-Values-And-Instrumental-Values
    19. Leaky-Generalizations
    20. The-Hidden-Complexity-Of-Wishes
    21. Anthropomorphic-Optimism
    22. Lost-Purposes
    23. The-Parable-Of-The-Dagger
    24. The-Parable-Of-Hemlock
    25. Words-As-Hidden-Inferences
    26. Extensions-And-Intensions
    27. Similarity-Clusters
    28. Typicality-And-Asymmetrical-Similarity
    29. The-Cluster-Structure-Of-Thingspace
    30. Disguised-Queries
    31. Neural-Categories
    32. How-An-Algorithm-Feels-From-Inside
    33. Disputing-Definitions
    34. Feel-The-Meaning
    35. The-Argument-From-Common-Usage
    36. Empty-Labels
    37. Taboo-Your-Words
    38. Replace-The-Symbol-With-The-Substance
    39. Fallacies-Of-Compression
    40. Categorizing-Has-Consequences
    41. Sneaking-In-Connotations
    42. Arguing-By-Definition
    43. Where-To-Draw-The-Boundary
    44. Entropy-And-Short-Codes
    45. Mutual-Information-And-Density-In-Thingspace
    46. Superexponential-Conceptspace-And-Simple-Words
    47. Conditional-Independence-And-Naive-Bayes
    48. Words-As-Mental-Paintbrush-Handles
    49. Variable-Question-Fallacies
    50. Thirty-Seven-Ways-That-Words-Can-Be-Wrong
  • An-Intuitive-Explanation-Of-Bayess-Theorem
  • The-World-An-Introduction
    1. Universal-Fire
    2. Universal-Law
    3. Is-Reality-Ugly
    4. Beautiful-Probability
    5. Outside-The-Laboratory
    6. The-Second-Law-Of-Thermodynamics-And-Engines-Of-Cognition
    7. Perpetual-Motion-Beliefs
    8. Searching-For-Bayes-Structure
    9. Dissolving-The-Question
    10. Wrong-Questions
    11. Righting-A-Wrong-Question
    12. Mind-Projection-Fallacy
    13. Probability-Is-In-The-Mind
    14. The-Quotation-Is-Not-The-Referent
    15. Qualitatively-Confused
    16. Think-Like-Reality
    17. Chaotic-Inversion
    18. Reductionism
    19. Explaining-Vs-Explaining-Away
    20. Fake-Reductionism
    21. Savannah-Poets
    22. Joy-In-The-Merely-Real
    23. Joy-In-Discovery
    24. Bind-Yourself-To-Reality
    25. If-You-Demand-Magic-Magic-Wont-Help
    26. Mundane-Magic
    27. The-Beauty-Of-Settled-Science
    28. Amazing-Breakthrough-Day-April-First
    29. Is-Humanism-A-Religion-Substitute
    30. Scarcity
    31. The-Sacred-Mundane
    32. To-Spread-Science-Keep-It-Secret
    33. Initiation-Ceremony
    34. Hand-Vs-Fingers
    35. Angry-Atoms
    36. Heat-Vs-Motion
    37. Brain-Breakthrough-Its-Made-Of-Neurons
    38. When-Anthropomorphism-Became-Stupid
    39. A-Priori
    40. Reductive-Reference
    41. Zombies-Zombies
    42. Zombie-Responses
    43. The-Generalized-Anti-Zombie-Principle
    44. Gazp-Vs-Glut
    45. Belief-In-The-Implied-Invisible
    46. Zombies-The-Movie
    47. Excluding-The-Supernatural
    48. Psychic-Powers
    49. Quantum-Explanations
    50. Configurations-And-Amplitude
    51. Joint-Configurations
    52. Distinct-Configurations
    53. Collapse-Postulates
    54. Decoherence-Is-Simple
    55. Decoherence-Is-Falsifiable-And-Testable
    56. Privileging-The-Hypothesis
    57. Living-In-Many-Worlds
    58. Quantum-Non-Realism
    59. If-Many-Worlds-Had-Come-First
    60. Where-Philosophy-Meets-Science
    61. Thou-Art-Physics
    62. Many-Worlds-One-Best-Guess
    63. The-Failures-Of-Eld-Science
    64. The-Dilemma-Science-Or-Bayes
    65. Science-Doesnt-Trust-Your-Rationality
    66. When-Science-Cant-Help
    67. Science-Isnt-Strict-Enough
    68. Do-Scientists-Already-Know-This-Stuff
    69. No-Safe-Defense-Not-Even-Science
    70. Changing-The-Definition-Of-Science
    71. Faster-Than-Science
    72. Einsteins-Speed
    73. That-Alien-Message
    74. My-Childhood-Role-Model
    75. Einsteins-Superpowers
    76. Class-Project
  • A-Technical-Explanation-Of-Technical-Explanation
  • Ends-An-Introduction
    1. Not-For-The-Sake-Of-Happiness-Alone
    2. Fake-Selfishness
    3. Fake-Morality
    4. Fake-Utility-Functions
    5. Detached-Lever-Fallacy
    6. Dreams-Of-AI-Design
    7. The-Design-Space-Of-Minds-In-General
    8. Where-Recursive-Justification-Hits-Bottom
    9. My-Kind-Of-Reflection
    10. No-Universally-Compelling-Arguments
    11. Created-Already-In-Motion
    12. Sorting-Pebbles-Into-Correct-Heaps
    13. Two-Place-And-One-Place-Words
    14. What-Would-You-Do-Without-Morality
    15. Changing-Your-Metaethics
    16. Could-Anything-Be-Right
    17. Morality-As-Fixed-Computation
    18. Magical-Categories
    19. The-True-Prisoners-Dilemma
    20. Sympathetic-Minds
    21. High-Challenge
    22. Serious-Stories
    23. Value-Is-Fragile
    24. The-Gift-We-Give-To-Tomorrow
    25. Scope-Insensitivity
    26. One-Life-Against-The-World
    27. The-Allais-Paradox
    28. Zut-Allais
    29. Feeling-Moral
    30. The-Intuitions-Behind-Utilitarianism
    31. Ends-Dont-Justify-Means-Among-Humans
    32. Ethical-Injunctions
    33. Something-To-Protect
    34. When-Not-To-Use-Probabilities
    35. Newcombs-Problem-And-Regret-Of-Rationality
  • The-Twelve-Virtues-Of-Rationality
  • Beginnings-An-Introduction
    1. My-Childhood-Death-Spiral
    2. My-Best-And-Worst-Mistake
    3. Raised-In-Technophilia
    4. A-Prodigy-Of-Refutation
    5. The-Sheer-Folly-Of-Callow-Youth
    6. That-Tiny-Note-Of-Discord
    7. Fighting-A-Rearguard-Action-Against-The-Truth
    8. My-Naturalistic-Awakening
    9. The-Level-Above-Mine
    10. The-Magnitude-Of-His-Own-Folly
    11. Beyond-The-Reach-Of-God
    12. My-Bayesian-Enlightenment
    13. Tsuyoku-Naritai-I-Want-To-Become-Stronger
    14. Tsuyoku-Vs-The-Egalitarian-Instinct
    15. Trying-To-Try
    16. Use-The-Try-Harder-Luke
    17. On-Doing-The-Impossible
    18. Make-An-Extraordinary-Effort
    19. Shut-Up-And-Do-The-Impossible
    20. Final-Words
    21. Raising-The-Sanity-Waterline
    22. A-Sense-That-More-Is-Possible
    23. Epistemic-Viciousness
    24. Schools-Proliferating-Without-Evidence
    25. Three-Levels-Of-Rationality-Verification
    26. Why-Our-Kind-Cant-Cooperate
    27. Tolerate-Tolerance
    28. Your-Price-For-Joining
    29. Can-Humanism-Match-Religions-Output
    30. Church-Vs-Taskforce
    31. Rationality-Common-Interest-Of-Many-Causes
    32. Helpless-Individuals
    33. Money-The-Unit-Of-Caring
    34. Purchase-Fuzzies-And-Utilons-Separately
    35. Bystander-Apathy
    36. Collective-Apathy-And-The-Internet
    37. Incremental-Progress-And-The-Valley
    38. Bayesians-Vs-Barbarians
    39. Beware-Of-Other-Optimizing
    40. Practical-Advice-Backed-By-Deep-Theories
    41. The-Sin-Of-Underconfidence
    42. Go-Forth-And-Create-The-Art
• Glossary