E
Overly Convenient Excuses


The first sequence of essays in How to Actually Change Your Mind, “Overly Convenient Excuses,” focuses on questions that are as probabilistically clearcut as questions get. The Bayes-optimal answer is often infeasible to compute, but errors like confirmation bias can take root even in cases where the available evidence is overwhelming and we have plenty of time to think things over.


  1. The Proper Use of Humility
  2. The Third Alternative
  3. Lotteries: A Waste of Hope
  4. New Improved Lottery
  5. But There’s Still a Chance, Right?
  6. The Fallacy of Gray
  7. Absolute Authority
  8. How to Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3
  9. Infinite Certainty
  10. 0 And 1 Are Not Probabilities
  11. Your Rationality Is My Business